POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – According to recent research, climate change has the potential to nearly triple the annual land area affected by wildfires across Europe by 2100. The study forecasts a 192% rise in burned areas annually under a high-emissions scenario associated with approximately 3.6°C of global warming. This comes shortly after significant wildfires in 2026 impacted regions of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The central climate factors identified in the analysis remain hot, dry, and windy conditions.
Published in Global Change Biology, the research utilized two fire models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Scientists examined a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The former correlates to roughly 1.8°C of warming, while the latter reaches around 3.6°C. Socioeconomic variables were kept constant in separate tests to determine their influence on wildfire activity.
Under the scenario of lower emissions, one model predicted roughly a 39% increase in annual burned land by the end of the century. A second model suggested a potential decrease under reduced warming, as it accounted differently for historical human impacts. Conversely, the high-emissions scenario models indicated significantly larger increases in burned areas, especially around the Mediterranean and across much of Western and Central Europe, regions that have historically experienced relatively low fire activity.
Models point to emissions as a key factor driving burned areas
The research revealed that future wildfire patterns across Europe are strongly influenced by fire weather conditions and firefighting capacity. Other factors like population density, vegetation shifts, and land use changes also play crucial roles, especially when viewed regionally. Maik Billing, lead author and researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explains that the study distinguishes between climate-driven fire weather and human influences affecting fire spread.
Advancements in fire prevention, early detection, and suppression techniques could reduce burned areas by between 72% and 92% compared to scenarios lacking these improvements. The impact of fire management was more pronounced under the lower-emissions scenario and less so with stronger warming. Despite ongoing improvements in fire-fighting capacity, about 55% of Europe’s vulnerable fire regions could still experience increased fire activity under significant climate change. Thomas Hickler, a co-author working at the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany, emphasizes this point.
Enhanced fire management can curb wildfire expansion
The findings emerge amid an intense wildfire season in Europe during 2026, driven by extreme heat and dry conditions that ignited large fires. Southern Europe experienced some of the most severe outbreaks, but northern areas also faced significant fires. The projections extend beyond the Mediterranean region, indicating increased fire activity across sections of Western and Central Europe. The authors attribute these patterns to shifts in fire weather resulting from rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells.
Importantly, the study does not suggest the 192% rise as an unavoidable outcome. Instead, it reflects a modeled projection based on the high-emissions scenario and the study’s assumptions. The researchers identified much smaller increases under lower emissions and highlighted that substantial reductions could be achieved through more effective fire management. However, they also noted that firefighting efforts alone cannot fully counteract the increase in fire activity driven by stronger warming. Ultimately, emissions levels, fire weather conditions, and management capacity are critical factors shaping the future extent of wildfires in Europe.