GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has revised its projection for global merchandise trade growth in 2026, now estimating an increase of 3.9 percent. This marks a significant upward revision from the 1.9 percent forecast issued in March. The organization attributed the positive outlook to robust trade performance in the first half of the year, supply chain realignments, and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite substantial disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5 percent during the initial half of 2026. Looking ahead, the WTO now anticipates merchandise trade growth to reach 4.1 percent in 2027.
A notable contributor to the rise in merchandise trade during the first half of 2026 was demand driven by artificial intelligence. Goods facilitating AI, such as semiconductors and servers, made up 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth, with trade in these products surging by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also highlighted that worldwide expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. While other sectors faced challenges from conflicts and transportation issues, increased demand for computing hardware helped sustain trade momentum.
Global supply chains have also adapted to pressures in key commodity and shipping sectors. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Similarly, exports of liquefied natural gas from the region decreased by 47 percent over the same period. Nonetheless, increased shipments from alternative suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil exports to around 6 percent. LNG exports worldwide only fell by 1 percent. Additionally, container throughput globally grew by 3.9 percent through July, supported by trade rerouting through alternative ports and corridors.
AI-driven goods bolster global merchandise trade
The improved outlook for goods trade contrasts with a more subdued forecast for commercial services. The WTO has lowered its 2026 projection for services trade volume growth to 3.3 percent from 4.8 percent in March. Disruptions in the Middle East have increased pressures on transport and international travel. International tourist arrivals fell by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, remaining only 0.4 percent higher overall in the first half of the year. Growth in travel spending also slowed significantly between the two quarters.
Other service sectors, however, experienced stronger growth despite challenges in travel and transportation. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent from a year earlier in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Exports of financial services also rose 14 percent year-on-year in the same period. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027. It further estimates global GDP will expand by 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in the following year.
Uneven regional trade performance persists
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade reveal significant disparities across the global economy. The WTO predicts Asia will lead export growth at 9.9 percent in 2026. North American exports are expected to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa is forecasted at 5.6 percent. South America is projected to see a 3.4 percent increase, whereas Europe is expected to experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the most substantial contraction, with merchandise exports forecast to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Similarly, import growth varies notably among regions. Asia is expected to see merchandise import growth of 9.5 percent, with Africa close behind at 8.9 percent. North American imports are forecast to rise by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. In contrast, merchandise imports in the Middle East are projected to decline by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that the latest data demonstrate trade resilience, though they also highlight the uneven impact of economic and geopolitical disruptions across different regions.