ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization projects global cereal output in 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease from last year’s historic high. Despite this decline, the total is still expected to rank as the second-largest harvest ever. The latest forecast is 3.4 million tonnes less than the estimate issued in July. This annual reduction amounts to 61.1 million tonnes and marks the most significant year-on-year decline since 2018.
After a downturn in crop prospects, global maize production is now estimated at 1.309 billion tonnes. Weaker yields across key European Union regions, notably France and Poland, were driven by ongoing summer heat and dry conditions. Smaller downward revisions were also made for India and Paraguay, based on official estimates. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil reported better-than-expected yields, which helped offset some reductions, and both nations are projected to produce significantly above-average maize in 2026.
Forecasts for world wheat production now stand at 810.7 million tonnes, reflecting an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from previous estimates. Expectations for Canada and Morocco improved by approximately 1.5 million tonnes each due to better yield outlooks. Additionally, projections for Russia and Ukraine increased, while dry weather conditions resulted in lowered forecasts for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite these upward adjustments, global wheat production is still forecast to be 3.8% below 2025 levels, ranking as the second-largest crop on record.
Maize declines lead to downward revision of global cereal outlook
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis. This marks a 1.9% decrease from the revised record achieved in 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from improved yields in Myanmar and strong main-crop harvests in Sri Lanka. These gains counterbalance reductions in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal consumption reaching 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, reflecting a modest 0.2% increase from the previous season. While coarse grains and rice are expected to see higher usage, wheat consumption is forecast to decline from the elevated level of last season. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by growing food demand due to population increases. Feed needs continue to be an important part of coarse-grain use, including barley consumption in China and maize usage in the United States.
Global grain reserves remain at historically comfortable levels
At the close of 2027, world cereal stocks are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes. This is 10.7 million tonnes below the previous projection but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio for cereals worldwide is expected to be 31.6%, slightly lower than the 31.9% recorded in the previous season. Wheat reserves are anticipated to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas lower inventories of maize and barley have contributed to a more cautious outlook for overall stocks.
Trade in cereals globally for 2026/27 is estimated at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier forecasts. Nonetheless, this total remains below the record volume seen in 2025/26. A significant portion of this uptick is due to increased maize trade, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. The international rice trade in 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, though overall rice shipments are still 1.9% below the 2025 record.